Today, I have a rare day off. Since I have long preferred sleep to New Year’s festivities, I will take this opportunity to calmly and thoroughly explain the reasons for my pessimism regarding our prospects.
The primary reasons are statistical, publicly available, and lie on the surface. This January, the duration of the ongoing Great Russo-Ukrainian War will cross the symbolic threshold of 1,418 days. This is exactly how long the Soviet-German war lasted—the one referred to in my school years as the "Great Patriotic War." In those 1,418 days, the Wehrmacht reached Moscow and Stalingrad, while Soviet troops reached Berlin. The turning point was 1943, when the Red Army broke the enemy at Stalingrad and Kursk, seizing the strategic initiative. To achieve this, despite a catastrophic start, the USSR mobilized its population, industry, and allies to concentrate the reserves necessary to turn the tide.
In contrast, over the last three years, we have been losing more territory than we reclaim. According to DeepState, our monthly losses range from 39 sq. km (March 2024) to 730 sq. km (November 2024). In total, we lost 4,336 sq. km in 2025—ten times the area of the city of Dnipro. In 2024, the loss was 3,318 sq. km. We are not just losing; we are losing at an accelerating rate.
I see no true mobilization of resources in Ukraine. Desertion and AWOL rates have reached such levels that the government classified the official statistics previously published by the Prosecutor General's Office. Military salaries remain frozen at 2022 levels. Most military units are critically underfunded, with soldiers still purchasing vehicles, electronic warfare systems, and medical kits out of their own pockets or through volunteers. When a shack in the front-line zone costs 60,000 UAH a month to rent, one must ask: are we fielding a professional army or a folk militia?
Despite allied aid, we are losing to the Russians across nearly the entire spectrum of weaponry. North Korea has supplied Russia with 12 million 152mm shells; in the same period, the US provided Ukraine with just over 2 million 155mm shells. We remain critically dependent on partners, and for drones—on China, a country that declares neutrality while actively supporting our enemy.
Ultimately—and most importantly—a smaller country led by a kleptocratic elite will never defeat a larger country led by a similar kleptocracy. You cannot steal with one hand and fight with the other. A "minor kleptocracy" is doomed against a "major" one. The administrations of Zelenskyy and Putin share the same nature: electoral kleptocracies keeping their populations hooked on the drug of patriotism. As Samuel Johnson famously noted, "Patriotism is the last refuge of a scoundrel."
When Zelenskyy finally removed Yermak under anti-corruption pressure, a flicker of hope emerged that the instinct for self-preservation might prompt a change in the very philosophy of power. I expected the replacement of Syrskyi with Drapatyi, and the appointment of professionals of the caliber of Horbulin or Marchuk to the NSDC. This required only political will—preferring integrity over servility. But those hopes were stillborn.
This year will be decisive. Ukraine is destined either to wake up, transform radically, and become a leader of the free world—or to perish and vanish into "Little Russia." Why would the world (or God) need another small kleptocracy that fights heroically while perpetually begging and stealing from its own people and its allies?
I once hoped elections could cure the "bulimia" of the Ukrainian authorities. I am now convinced that surgical intervention is unavoidable. And there is no surgery without blood. Evil must be punished. Stolen assets must be returned. The system must be radically altered. I have given too much to this country to accept the rule of voracious scoundrels. If I survive, I will be among the surgeons when the time comes to put Ukraine on the operating table.
