The European Commission is incorporating into its financial forecasts the assumption that Russia's full-scale war against Ukraine will conclude at the end of 2026. This conclusion follows from a letter from European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen to EU leaders dated November 17, reports EP.
The document states that when formulating support options for Ukraine for 2026-2027, the European Commission is proceeding from this specific war completion scenario. However, even under these conditions, Ukraine's resource deficit will remain critical.
"The scale of Ukraine's financing deficit is significant. According to preliminary IMF forecasts — provided that the war ends at the end of 2026 and taking into account all the assistance already promised by the EU, member states, and international partners — Ukraine will still face a huge shortage that cannot be overcome without attracting new funding," von der Leyen emphasized.
She recalled that the European Council pledged in October 2025 to cover Ukraine's immediate financial needs for 2026-2027, including support for defense and military efforts.
In the letter, the European Commission President highlights four key requirements for the future financial package for Ukraine:
- funding must be quickly available, with the first payments starting in the second quarter of 2026;
- the new package must not create additional fiscal pressure on Ukraine;
- support must be flexible enough to respond to significant uncertainties regarding the volume of needs in 2026-2027;
- ensuring a fair distribution of the financial burden between the EU and its international partners.
We also recall, Zelenskyy and Macron signed a "historic" declaration: what Ukraine will receive.
