George Friedman, founder of Geopolitical Futures, called Poland the key military power standing first in the path of any potential Russian invasion of Europe. In his view, this alone makes the continued presence of American troops on the continent unnecessary.
The analyst made this assessment on the Geopolitical Futures podcast following the Munich Security Conference, "Hvylya" reports.
"Russia couldn't capture anything except a small part of Ukraine. It cannot invade Europe - primarily because Poland is becoming a powerful military force and stands first in the way," Friedman declared.
The analyst stressed that the US has different relationships with different European countries. "With the British - close, and it will always be that way. With the Poles - good, we understand Poland's importance. France and Germany? What's our interest there?" he asked rhetorically. Peter Zeihan has similarly argued that Europe's defense paralysis may force a radical split between willing and unwilling members.
Friedman recalled that the Russian threat to Europe has evaporated, and the reasons the US once stationed troops on the continent - particularly controlling the Fulda Gap on the border between West and East Germany during the Cold War - have long lost their relevance. Meanwhile, Ukraine and France have agreed on joint weapons production, signaling Europe's gradual shift toward defense self-reliance.
