While the United States can shift global security realities in a matter of days, the European Union often requires years of bureaucratic deliberation to achieve a fraction of the impact.
Geopolitical strategist Peter Zeihan argues that the continent’s decision-making architecture is failing to meet the current moment. With the war in Ukraine entering its fourth year and Russian aggression threatening borders, Brussels remains hamstrung by its consensus rules, under which every member state holds a veto.
This structural flaw allows a single dissenting capital to derail collective defense efforts. Zeihan noted that even with explosions on the bloc's periphery, Europe cannot take a firm stance because specific members remain effectively aligned with Russian interests.
To break the deadlock, policy planners are revisiting the concept of a "two-speed Europe." Under this model, a coalition of the willing would forge an "EU Deep," integrating their foreign and security policies while eliminating national vetoes. The remaining members would stay in a looser economic arrangement.
However, the organizational challenges are immense.
Implementing such a schism would require a new treaty. Zeihan noted that this process invariably drags on for a decade—a timeline too slow for the war in Ukraine and likely too late to address the geopolitical shifts expected under a second Trump administration.
Furthermore, Berlin and Paris are unlikely to surrender their strategic autonomy regardless of the timeline. To illustrate the friction, Zeihan compared the scenario to a theoretical merger of the United States and Canada, where a president from Ontario suddenly commands the American military.
"Can you see how that would be really awkward?" he asked.
The cultural foundation for a Latvian president to command the French nuclear deterrent simply does not exist. European nations function as distinct nation-states, not component parts of a federal whole willing to make sacrifices for decisions made by foreign leaders.
Without a catastrophic event that fractures the current system, the bloc appears destined to continue muddling through with institutions built for a vanished era of globalization. According to Zeihan, Europeans are unlikely to adapt before their current legal structures reach a breaking point.
