Russian dictator Vladimir Putin is not interested in a real settlement of the conflict—he is buying time. This is the conclusion reached by Western analysts observing how Russian negotiators project a semblance of concessions while simultaneously continuing massive strikes against Ukraine.
According to Bloomberg, as reported by Hvylya, this strategy is unfolding against the backdrop of the latest round of negotiations in Abu Dhabi. During these talks, Russia launched one of its most destructive strikes on the Ukrainian energy sector: 450 drones and 71 missiles targeted power plants and grids amidst minus 30-degree Celsius temperatures. A few days later, another strike followed, this time hitting high-voltage power lines that serve as the backbone of the entire national energy system. Each subsequent attack compounds previous damage, multiplying the overall impact.
According to DTEK, Ukraine's largest private electricity producer, approximately 80% of its thermal generation capacity has been destroyed or seriously damaged. Before the war, these plants provided about two-thirds of the country’s total thermal generation, supplying both electricity and heat. Today, Ukrainians live in freezing apartments, remain trapped in elevators during blackouts, and face frequent water supply interruptions. In Kyiv, electricity is available for only a few hours a day, and the capital's mayor states that approximately 600,000 residents have already fled the city.
The Kremlin's goal is twofold: to break the civilian resistance of Ukrainians through physical suffering and to convince the international community that a Russian victory is inevitable, suggesting that any aid to Ukraine only delays the unavoidable. However, the data tells a different story: after nearly four years of war, Russia controls only one-fifth of Ukrainian territory, and its pace of advancement remains negligible. Meanwhile, losses are colossal—estimates suggest the Russian army has lost about 1.2 million soldiers killed, wounded, or missing. Defense and security spending consumes roughly 40% of Russia's federal budget, draining the economy and disrupting the country’s normal rhythm.
Europe has already responded: emergency generators have been sent to Ukraine, and an entire thermal power plant was relocated from Lithuania. However, experts emphasize that this is not enough. Ukraine requires additional air defense systems to protect substations and power plants, as well as transformers and equipment to strengthen the energy grid.
Simultaneously, the US and Europe must increase pressure on Russia's oil revenues. The US Senate is currently considering a bipartisan sanctions bill targeting buyers of Russian oil—primarily India and China. The European Union, for its part, is discussing a package of measures that includes a ban on companies with European ties from insuring, repairing, financing, or servicing vessels carrying Russian oil.
The International Criminal Court has already issued arrest warrants for Russian commanders for strikes on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure. Attacks on facilities essential for the survival of the civilian population are prohibited by the Geneva Conventions and international law. The notion that such strikes bring peace closer does not withstand scrutiny. It is time for Washington to state this directly.
