Russia is spending 40% of its state budget - equivalent to nearly 8% of GDP - on its military and the war. How long Moscow can sustain this is unclear, writes American analyst Michael Kofman in a Foreign Affairs article published February 16, 2026.
As "Hvylya" reports, Kofman lays out Russia's growing economic vulnerabilities and argues that Ukraine is deliberately pressing on exactly this pressure point.
Key stress factors he identifies include: economic stagnation, a widening deficit, regional budget crises, low oil prices, and falling oil revenues - Russia has been forced to offer steep discounts just to sell its crude. He singles out growing pressure on the "shadow fleet," the network of vessels Russia uses to circumvent sanctions.
"Even Russia's military production, the primary driver of industrial output in recent years, is leveling off," he notes. Regional administrators are squeezed simultaneously by budget deficits and annual military recruitment quotas. The Trump administration's oil sanctions against Rosneft and Lukoil have compounded this pressure significantly.
Ukraine's strategy in this context is to ramp up strikes on Russian energy infrastructure enough to make 2026 the year Moscow's finances reach a breaking point - forcing a significant revision of its negotiating demands. Kofman's verdict: "Russia is not running out of money, but the economic foundations of its war effort look increasingly shaky."
