Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has publicly rejected several key provisions of a preliminary peace plan being discussed by the United States and its partners, specifically the ideas of "freezing" the line of contact and providing Ukraine with reliable security guarantees, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reports.

Russia’s Stance on the Peace Plan

  • Rejection of Status Quo: According to the analysts' assessment, Lavrov dismissed proposals that included cementing the current line of contact in the Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions. He also rejected approaches regarding the status of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP), which called for restarting the station under the control of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) rather than Russia.

  • Security Guarantees and Sovereignty: The ISW separately highlighted Lavrov's refusal to support the idea of "reliable security guarantees" for Kyiv and the confirmation of Ukraine's sovereignty.

  • NATO Demands: Lavrov also spoke out against an approach under which NATO would only cease further expansion. Instead, according to the ISW, he insists on demands for the Alliance to return to its pre-1997 parameters. The Russian minister reportedly did not support other points mentioned in the report, including the possibility of deploying European fighter jets in Poland and using EU norms for protecting religious minorities as a basis for Ukrainian legislation in this area.

Back to 2021 Ultimata

The ISW reminded that Lavrov has effectively returned to the ultimata Russia issued to the US and NATO in December 2021 as the "basis" for Russia's security guarantees. Specifically, this refers to the demand to halt the deployment of forces or weapons systems in NATO member states that joined after 1997.

Analysts also drew attention to Lavrov's reference to the Russian constitution, which illegally defines Crimea, along with the Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson regions, as "subjects of the Russian Federation." The ISW believes Moscow is using this to emphasize the point that "Russia cannot give up territories enshrined in its constitution."

"Lavrov's statements on December 11 indicate that the Kremlin is unwilling to accept the initial 28-point peace plan, and Russia will instead demand further changes if Ukraine agrees to it," the ISW report states.

Kremlin Signals

The report also notes that high-ranking Kremlin officials, including Vladimir Putin, have similarly rejected key elements of the 28-point plan in recent weeks. Analysts specifically pointed out Moscow's signals regarding the provision for elections in Ukraine 100 days after signing an agreement—the Kremlin, in the ISW's assessment, is not demonstrating readiness to agree to this approach. Furthermore, the ISW indicated that several deputies in the Russian State Duma have publicly hinted that Moscow is not interested in signing any peace agreements in the proposed format.

The Plan's Evolution

The original framework document consisted of 28 points and drew criticism in Ukraine and among European partners. Following discussions between the Ukrainian and American delegations, the document was amended, and the plan itself was reportedly reduced to 20 points to bring it closer to proposals acceptable to Kyiv.

There is currently no finally agreed-upon text or signed agreements. Analysts estimate that discussions are ongoing, but Moscow's public statements show that the Kremlin is making no concessions and is attempting to change the terms in its favor.