The primary obstacle to a peace agreement is not Kyiv's position on territories, but Russian dictator Vladimir Putin's categorical refusal to provide Ukraine with meaningful Western security guarantees.
According to analysts from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), Moscow is deliberately distorting reality in an attempt to portray Ukraine as the party responsible for the ongoing war. This tactic is designed to conceal the Kremlin's unwillingness to engage in any real compromise.
"The Kremlin is trying to deflect attention from the fact that Russia's refusal to compromise is the main obstacle to peace. Russia falsely insists that Ukraine's unwillingness to make territorial concessions without security guarantees is the sole barrier," the report states.
The aggressor's appetites remain unchanged and maximalist. The list of demands includes the full withdrawal of the Ukrainian Armed Forces from the Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson regions, Kyiv's renunciation of NATO membership, so-called "demilitarization and denazification," as well as the recognition of annexations and the total lifting of all Western sanctions.
Meanwhile, Hvylya reports that according to ISW, Ukraine has already offered significant concessions on certain points in exchange for firm security guarantees. However, Russia continues to double down, demanding the withdrawal of Ukrainian troops even before a ceasefire begins.
Analysts are convinced that Putin views negotiations under U.S. auspices solely as a manipulative tool to achieve military objectives that he has failed to realize on the battlefield after nearly four years of war.
"The Kremlin seeks to balance between demonstrating strength to its population and allies, and engaging the U.S. in negotiations just enough to avoid additional pressure from Washington while continuing to pursue its military and political goals," the Institute concluded.
