American geopolitical analyst George Friedman presented a comprehensive picture of the collapse of Russian influence in the post-Soviet space. Contrary to Putin's goals of expanding his sphere of influence, Russia has lost control over vast regions that were previously in its orbit in recent years.
George Friedman said this in an interview with the Geopolitical Futures podcast.
"Central Asia has separated from Russia. Now it's approaching the US again, possibly China, which is not Russia's friend. He lost the entire South Caucasus - all these countries are now independent and under American influence," the expert stated. He emphasized that this refers to countries such as Azerbaijan, Armenia, and Georgia.
Friedman pointed to the failure of Putin's strategy on all fronts: "He failed in the west in his attempt to create a buffer - he couldn't even take Ukraine, let alone the Baltics." The analyst noted the irony of the situation: the war in Ukraine was conceived as a way to restore Russia's sphere of influence, but led to its even greater contraction.
The expert paid particular attention to the situation in Central Asia. The region, which remained in Russia's orbit for a long time, is now actively developing relations with Washington. "They see where everything is going, and wouldn't mind contributing to Russia's collapse if it's going to happen anyway," Friedman noted, commenting on India's recent decision to stop purchasing Russian oil.
The geopolitician compared Russia's current position to the final years of Lyndon Johnson's presidency in the US: "Remember again the final years of Lyndon Johnson's presidency: the inability to admit defeat, economic crisis in the US, the Arab oil embargo and everything else. All of that was easy compared to the pressure Putin is under."
Friedman emphasized that unlike the US, where a political system existed that allowed a change of course, Russia has no mechanism for peaceful change of power or policy. "There will be elections someday, but who knows how they'll go and how the votes will be counted," the expert added.
