Despite the significantly harsher conditions of a frontline city, Kharkiv has proven better prepared for Russian strikes on energy infrastructure than Kyiv.
Victor Kurtev, an energy sector expert, spoke about the systemic problems facing the capital's winter preparedness in an interview with Yuriy Romanenko.
According to Kurtev, comparing the two cities is entirely valid given the similar scale and complexity of their utility systems.
"Kharkiv is in much tougher conditions. It is a frontline city, shelled daily by artillery, glide bombs, and other weaponry. It is much harder for Kharkiv than for Kyiv, yet Kharkiv has advanced much further in this regard. The bulk of Kharkiv's critical infrastructure is powered," the expert noted.
The Energy Island Concept
Kurtev explained that distributed generation operates on the principle of "energy islands." Under normal conditions, gas piston units run in sync with the grid. However, in the event of a blackout, frequency division automation triggers, and the equipment switches to island mode.
"They continue to power critical infrastructure in reserve. Pumps work, water flows, heat is supplied. Even if the lights go out, you have everything else; your entire critical infrastructure is powered. That is their goal," he explained.
For Kyiv, such units could provide 80-100 megawatts of capacity—a small amount in the overall balance, but sufficient for critical infrastructure.
What Went Wrong
According to Kurtev, there are systemic issues with distributed generation in Kyiv. Only one small unit has been launched, while other units donated by the UNDP are still in the commissioning phase.
"Bureaucracy, this and that, and so on," he stated.
The expert recounted a critical incident involving emergency drills. In late November or early December, the Ministry of Energy, together with the State Emergency Service, initiated exercises for all Kyiv utility services: the Water Utility, Kyivteploenergo (heating), Kyiv Networks, the police, and Points of Invincibility. The plan was to practice synchronizing actions, including draining water from in-house networks to prevent pipes from bursting.
"They received a reply signed by Deputy Mayor of Kyiv, Comrade Panteleev. The content was as follows: we are in the budget process, we haven't yet spent the 2025 budget, and we are planning for 2026. All our people are busy. Come back after the holidays. We propose moving the exercises to 2026. It was written there in black and white," Kurtev said.
He also cited the example of the Water Utility's critical infrastructure, which not only lacks backup power but is reliant on category three power supply.
"It's hanging by a thread; critical infrastructure is simply hanging on a single grid line. Four years of war, and nobody bothered to give this a thought," the expert said indignantly.
Last week, as preparations were underway for a massive strike, some communities in the Kyiv region refused to accept generators.
"The head of the community says: accept these generators, mobile boiler rooms, and so on from the list. 'What? Where? I don't want to, I won't do it,'" Kurtev described the situation in the direction of Bucha and Hostomel.
It was necessary to speak harshly, threatening them with the TCC (draft office).
What Was Done Well
Kurtev cited the work of Fedorov during his time as Minister of Digital Transformation as a positive example. He created "islands of guaranteed power supply" for communication systems.
"So that no matter what happens, even in total blackout mode, communications work, the internet works, and you can pay with your phone and cards in shops," he explained.
Following the appointment of a new energy minister and the establishment of an anti-crisis headquarters by Prime Minister Shmygal, a decision was made to maximize the use of the import interface.
"Over two years ago, I wrote a long post titled 'A Chance for Energy.' It detailed the need to appoint a Vice Prime Minister cum Minister of Energy, make him the head of this headquarters, and outlined what needs to be done with imports, regulation, and decentralization. We have started taking the first steps," Kurtev noted.
Market Logic vs. Mobilization Logic
The expert criticized the market-based approach to electricity imports. The import interface, with a capacity of 2,300–2,400 megawatts, has never been fully utilized because traders only import electricity when there is a profit margin.
"We must switch to a mobilization type of energy sector and a mobilization type of economy. Force the state trader ECU to fill the import interface with a flat schedule 24 hours a day. If there are cash gaps, cover these losses in a targeted manner. Because the economic losses from power outages are fifty times greater," Kurtev emphasized.
He concluded that, despite all the shortcomings, Ukraine has proven more resilient than the enemy expected.
"We are moving along a trajectory that is, to put it mildly, not ideal. But despite all this, we will stand firm regardless. Energy will not be a factor in forcing us into an unjust peace," the expert declared.
