Valeriy Zaluzhnyi, Ukraine's former military chief and current ambassador to the UK, has penned a manifesto outlining the critical need for clear political war aims and identifying Kyiv's strategic missteps.
He published the analysis in a column for Liga.net.
Zaluzhnyi revealed that he drafted a piece titled "On the Political Goal of the War for Ukraine" in late 2023, though it remained unpublished due to internal political tensions.
"One evening, I ordered a review of all directive documents sent to the General Staff to determine what political goal for the war had been set. Unfortunately, we missed nothing..." he noted, implying no such goal existed.
According to Zaluzhnyi, Moscow's primary objective remains the annihilation of Ukraine as an independent state. "Target number one for Russia is Ukraine—specifically a Ukraine with agency, independence, and potential, which is meant to be the gateway to Europe," the former commander wrote.
He noted that after the failure of its initial offensive, Russia shifted from a strategy of rapid defeat to one of attrition. In his assessment, the decisive blow in this strategy is to drive Ukraine into civil war.
"Peace—even in anticipation of the next war—without security guarantees and real financial programs will inevitably lead the conflict with Russia to the next stage: civil war," Zaluzhnyi warned.
On the definition of victory and defeat, the former commander was blunt: "Victory is the disintegration of the Russian Empire. Defeat is the complete occupation of Ukraine through its fragmentation. Everything else is simply a continuation of the war."
Zaluzhnyi also cited data on the state of the Armed Forces of Ukraine prior to the full-scale invasion: as of August 2021, troop strength stood at 250,000 against over a million Russian personnel. There were only 24 combat brigades, 12 of which were already deployed in the east and south.
He criticized the chronic underfunding of the army: less money was allocated in 2021 than in the previous year, and the 2022 budget saw only a 10% increase despite the massive buildup of Russian troops.
Regarding security guarantees, Zaluzhnyi identified three options: NATO membership, the deployment of nuclear weapons, or a substantial foreign military contingent on Ukrainian soil. "However, none of this is on the table today," he stated.
The former commander defined Ukraine's main political goal as "depriving Russia of the ability to commit acts of aggression against Ukraine in the foreseeable future."
Zaluzhnyi took a cautious stance regarding a potential cessation of hostilities. "We, Ukrainians, naturally strive for total victory—the collapse of the Russian Empire. But we cannot dismiss the option of a long-term (multi-year) end to the fighting, as this is a historically common way wars end," he wrote.
According to him, even a temporary peace "offers a chance for political change, deep reforms, full-scale reconstruction, economic growth, and the return of citizens." At the same time, he warned of the critical danger posed by peace without guarantees.
"Peace—even in anticipation of the next war—without security guarantees and real financial programs will inevitably lead the conflict with Russia to the next stage: civil war," Zaluzhnyi emphasized. He also criticized current diplomatic efforts: "Shifting the focus from ceasefire negotiations to concluding a final peace agreement makes it impossible for Ukraine to even consider them due to unacceptable conditions. We have already paid too high a price."
Zaluzhnyi's column appears amidst intense negotiations over a 28-point US peace plan developed by Trump envoy Steve Witkoff in consultation with Russian representative Kirill Dmitriev. The initial draft reportedly envisaged territorial concessions from Ukraine, including the Donbas, capping the Armed Forces at 600,000 troops, and enshrining a refusal to join NATO in the Constitution.
Following talks in Geneva on November 23, the document was significantly revised—the number of points was reduced, and the White House offered assurances that the updated version "does not violate Ukraine's sovereignty." The US also dropped the rigid November 27 deadline, with Secretary of State Marco Rubio stating that timelines have become "much more flexible."
Meanwhile, analysts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) emphasize that Moscow will reject any proposal falling short of Kyiv's de facto capitulation. The organization's report notes that the Kremlin's stance demonstrates an unwillingness to agree to any plan that "does not destroy Ukrainian statehood and does not deprive Ukraine of the right to self-defense." European nations have prepared an alternative plan, which categorically rejects territorial concessions and limitations on Ukraine's military.
