The formation of a government of national unity means for President Zelensky a sharp narrowing of the economic base of the political regime, because budget flows will come under the control of a new coalition with participation of Poroshenko, Tymoshenko and other influence groups. This will deprive Zelensky of the main resource — money for the election campaign and the ability to finance security forces, on whom his power critically depends.
This was stated by political analyst Yuriy Romanenko during a solo broadcast on his YouTube channel.
"The economic base of Zelensky's political regime sharply narrows because now these budget flows are claimed by conditionally Poroshenko, Tymoshenko and the influence groups around them — all these 'doviry' [trust groups] with their own oligarchs. The part of servants of the people who will enter the coalition and who gain greater agency," Romanenko explained.
The expert pointed to critical dependence on security forces. "Security forces get fewer opportunities to receive money due to redistribution of these economic flows. You critically depend on security forces. Then further — elections. You want to spend money from the budget on elections, not your own money — they're all tightwads and misers. That is, none of them want to pay from their own pocket for this whole electoral sabbath," the analyst noted.
Romanenko explained the mechanism of influence redistribution. "If you lose a significant part of the budget flow, this means that whoever controls it — this turns out to be a new coalition, unstable at that — they experience strengthening on the eve of elections, while you experience weakening. And in these conditions, those elites who have money, who have electoral resources, organizational, media resources, they look at this whole situation and begin making decisions in elections based on this factor," the political scientist explained.
According to the expert, Zelensky's attempts to play out a scenario where he first wins presidential elections, cutting off competitors like Budanov and Zaluzhny, and then holds parliamentary and local elections, become impossible. "Budanov, Zaluzhny and other guys are cut off from elections through agreement or through integrating them into his structure, or through kompromat and threats so no one runs. And then through prolongation in Zelensky's second term to further hold parliamentary and local elections. With such a coalition scenario, all this becomes impossible," Romanenko stated.
The analyst emphasized that for Zelensky, serious negotiations mean the need to substantially change the power configuration. "Remove Yermak — will Zelensky go for this? This means he frees himself from the circle of these five-six managers he relied on, who were his team and supporting pillars. Or freezing — trying to leave everything as is. This will lead to more serious conflicts at the next stages," he warned.
Romanenko also noted that the government of national unity is transitional — to stabilize the situation and prepare for presidential, parliamentary and local elections. "The country has been living without them beyond the norm. And this is also one of the reasons for the gradual decline in legitimacy. When we said in 2023 that elections need to be held, and the sooner the better for Zelensky, they labeled us: traitors, Kremlin's fifth column," the expert concluded.
The analysis of the economic foundations of power was made against the backdrop of "Myndychgate" — a scandal that forced the authorities to think about forming a coalition and thereby called into question the entire system of control over budget flows on which Zelensky's regime rests.
