The Donald Trump administration is implementing a strategy of "economic strangulation" toward Cuba, hoping to provoke an internal revolt against the regime. A key stage of this plan involved cutting off oil supplies following a U.S. special operation in Venezuela.
As reported by "Hvylya," renowned political scientist George Friedman shared these insights during a Geopolitical Futures podcast.
According to the analyst, following the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro by U.S. special forces on January 3, 2026, oil shipments to Cuba effectively ceased. Friedman emphasized that this was one of the primary objectives of the operation against Maduro.
"By cutting off supplies from Venezuela, the United States partially aimed specifically to sever Cuba from its oil," the expert noted. He characterized the island’s economy as being "in ruins, a state that has persisted for a long time." In his view, the current Cuban administration has faced a total collapse: "This island could prosper. But it is not happening."
Friedman recalled that Washington's concerns regarding Cuba date back to the 19th century. The U.S. has always been troubled by the possibility of foreign powers using the island to project force onto the American coast. "John F. Kennedy, who was certainly not Donald Trump, maintained extremely tense relations with Cuba," the analyst remarked, mentioning the failure of the Bay of Pigs operation in 1961.
The expert is convinced that the threshold of suffering for the Cuban population "was passed many years ago," and the regime is held together solely by "ruthless internal security forces." People find themselves trapped: the authorities rarely permit emigration, and the U.S. is currently not interested in an influx of refugees.
"Trump's plan is to drive Cuba into a dead end so that the regime collapses, which will subsequently allow for the utilization and development of Cuba—as was done for centuries before Castro," Friedman asserts.
At the same time, he considers a full-scale invasion unlikely due to the size of the island. "Cuba is large. We forget how large it is. It stretches from New York to Chicago. Occupying this territory is an extremely difficult military task," the analyst explained. In his opinion, Trump prefers surgical actions: "Even with Maduro, it was a special operation: go in, grab him, and get out."
Regarding Russia's role, Friedman remains skeptical. While Moscow could theoretically assist Havana, it is practically powerless. "The Russian economy is not in a position to support the Cuban economy. And it is highly unlikely that Russia will decide on military action for the sake of Cuba," he concluded. The most likely scenario remains a blockade while waiting for an internal explosion.
