The massive blackout that struck central and northern Ukraine on January 31 resulted from a loss of grid control and critical infrastructure decay rather than external factors, according to utilities expert Oleh Popenko.
Speaking on Yuriy Romanenko’s broadcast, Popenko challenged the government's official narrative, which blamed the outages on a severed power line between Ukraine and Moldova. He noted that the geographical spread of the blackouts contradicts this explanation.
"I found it extremely strange to hear Prime Minister Shmyhal’s statement regarding the Moldova-Ukraine line," Popenko emphasized. "The north went out first—Zhytomyr, Chernihiv, and Kyiv regions—followed by Poltava. It is illogical to blame a connection with Moldova when the northern part of the country failed first. We simply aren't reliant enough on Moldovan imports for such an event to trigger a nationwide blackout."
According to the expert, the true cause lies with Ukrenergo dispatchers failing to balance a system currently operating under manual control. Errors in power distribution led to cascading failures, including the shutdown of nuclear power plant units.
"We have made a vast number of analytical and management errors. It was a mass failure of execution that led to a total loss of control," Popenko stated. "We have exhausted the energy sector’s margin of safety. A combination of massive shelling, corruption, and unprofessional management has led to this. The energy sector is now in dire condition."
Popenko warned that the capacity deficit remains critical. Before the current cold snap, the shortage stood at 7 gigawatts, but as temperatures drop further, that figure could rise to 9 gigawatts.
The expert also highlighted the fallout for Kyiv’s infrastructure. He claimed that chaotic responses and panic led utility workers to drain water from heating systems in many buildings, causing further damage to the networks.
"Draining and then refilling systems causes a water hammer effect on aging Soviet-era water and heating networks, as well as internal building pipes. This is yet another blow to our infrastructure," Popenko concluded. "If water was drained in 300 buildings, I am certain that up to 1,700 houses could now be left without heat, and restoring service to them could take another 10 to 15 days."
